NEW YORK and SHREVEPORT, La., Oct. 11, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Cowen Inc. (NASDAQ:COWN) (“Cowen” or the “Firm”), and AFS Logistics, LLC (“AFS”), at the moment introduced the launch of the Cowen/AFS Freight Index (“Freight Index”). The Freight Index will serve to supply Cowen’s institutional purchasers with predictive pricing instruments for a number of sectors inside the freight trade, on a quarterly foundation. The Freight Index will present a efficiency snapshot of less-than-truckload delivery (LTL), full truckload delivery (TL), and parcel delivery (each specific and floor, individually). This information can be featured in Cowen’s market-leading air freight and floor transportation fairness analysis. Jason Seidl, Cowen’s Senior Analyst for Airfreight & Floor Transportation, is main the initiative.
As one of the vital skilled 3PLs and largest freight audit and fee firms within the trade, AFS holds distinctive entry to freight information throughout transportation modes. Making use of superior analytics together with machine studying algorithms, AFS and Cowen developed fashions that unveil the depth and richness of the information. Along with the large historic information, present macro- and micro-economic elements are rigorously evaluated, chosen, and constructed into predictive fashions, together with the newest Normal Price Enhance (GRI) announcement from a serious parcel service. The ensuing Cowen/AFS Freight Index presents a novel and complete view of each previous efficiency and the forecasted outlook for the instant future quarter.
“Freight is a quickly altering trade and the power to trace its efficiency has turn into a important element of the funding course of for our purchasers. There may be sturdy demand for instruments to precisely monitor and predict sector developments. The Cowen/AFS Freight Index is designed to fill that void,” mentioned Jason Seidl. “Utilizing utilized machine studying, information science and the annual transportation spend at AFS since 2018 to offer a robust image of the general market, the Freight Index at the moment forecasts, amongst different issues, that we must always see the TL price market attain a brand new excessive within the fourth quarter of 2021, with LTL charges anticipated to develop at an excellent bigger clip.”
“Our purchasers are leveraging information to enhance effectivity of their logistics networks. Our intent with this groundbreaking Cowen/AFS Freight Index is to supply them with insights to make these data-driven networks much more efficient,” mentioned Tom Nightingale, Chief Government Officer of AFS. “We’re bringing extra than simply uncooked, historic information to the market. We’re making use of superior, predictive analytics and unlocking the total info behind the information to ship extremely related insights which have actual worth for our purchasers.”
Key Implications of the Cowen/AFS Freight Index from the Inaugural Report by Jason Seidl:
- TL: We anticipate TL price per mile to proceed rising by means of the tip of 2021, reaching a excessive for our index of 24.2% in 4Q21 and up from 21.0% in 3Q21, off the January 2018 AFS baseline. On a year-over-year foundation, the Freight Index suggests a rise of ~15% in 4Q, a slight sequential moderation. We discovered a correlation between the sequential change within the baseline of the TL Freight Index and sequential change in income per truck. Income per truck additionally presents historic insights into (and correlates to) TL inventory efficiency (TL inventory efficiency usually leads income per truck metrics by about one quarter). Thus, we view this as a constructive for the TL group.
- LTL: The Cowen/AFS LTL Freight Index means that LTL price per pound ought to proceed to develop sequentially in 4Q21 at 32.3%, up 2.1% sequentially, off the January 2018 AFS baseline. On a year-over-year foundation, the information suggests ~16% progress, a sequential improve in 4Q (noting a sequential step down from November to December). We discovered a correlation between the sequential change within the LTL Freight Index baseline and sequential change in income per hundredweight. LTL inventory efficiency additionally traditionally leads (and correlates with) the income per hundredweight metric LTL firms present by roughly one quarter. Due to this fact, we view the constructive sequential developments and new highs for the LTL Freight Index as a constructive for the LTL group.
- Parcel/Specific Parcel: The Cowen/AFS Parcel Freight Index means that floor parcel charges per package deal will improve 16.9% in 4Q21, up 2.1% sequentially, off the January 2018 AFS baseline. On a year-over-year foundation, the information recommend ~9% progress. For parcel specific, the Cowen/AFS Parcel Specific Freight Index recommend that specific charges per package deal will decline 10.9% in 4Q21, in comparison with -8.9% in 3Q, off the 2018 AFS baseline. On a year-over-year foundation, the information recommend ~13% progress. We discovered a correlation between sure massive parcel service KPIs and the Parcel Freight Index.
- Macro: We’ve got discovered the year-over-year AFS information (and the TL Freight Index particularly) to correlate properly with the year-over-year change within the Buying Managers’ Index. This will likely present traders with perspective on potential actions of the PMI. The TL Freight Index, which tracks truckload charges per mile, signifies how a lot carriers are charging shippers to maneuver TL freight. A robust demand surroundings (which is what we’re seeing play out out there now), results in elevated charges (with out contemplating the provision aspect), which suggests a robust manufacturing index.
- Different Takeaways: Since March 2021, AFS has seen the typical weight per cargo inside LTL steadily lower, doubtless because of the ongoing shift to e-commerce. Regardless of this, charges have nonetheless elevated, with labor shortages and different capability restraints contributing. Carriers have been capable of implement steep price will increase on shippers and have been much more aggressive on surcharges to maneuver undesirable freight.
For extra info and to learn the Cowen/AFS Freight Index, please go to https://afs.net/cowen-afs-predictive-freight-index.
About Jason Seidl
Jason Seidl joined Cowen in 2013 as a part of the Firm’s acquisition of Dahlman Rose and has been overlaying the air freight & floor transportation sector for over 20 years. He has been acknowledged for his inventory selecting and EPS accuracy in quite a few third-party polls and surveys, most lately the 2020 TipRanks Analyst Awards. He’s at the moment ranked 10th throughout all sectors for inventory selecting by TipRanks. Earlier than his Wall Road profession, Mr. Seidl spent 4 years working within the trucking/parcel transportation trade. He has a Bachelor of Science diploma in transportation distribution administration from Syracuse College and a Grasp of Enterprise Administration with a focus in Finance from Rutgers College. He’s a member of the chief advisory board for Syracuse College’s College of Provide Chain Administration; previous President of the board of administrators for the North East Affiliation of Rail Shippers; and a contributing editor for Railway Age.
About Cowen Analysis
Cowen’s analysis division has 58 senior analysts overlaying 930 securities throughout a number of sectors together with industrials, shopper, vitality, well being care, know-how, media & telecom, and cross-asset, in addition to a deep Washington coverage crew.
About Cowen Inc.
Cowen Inc. (“Cowen” or the “Firm”) is a diversified monetary companies agency that operates by means of two enterprise segments: a dealer supplier and an funding administration division. The Firm’s dealer supplier division presents funding banking companies, fairness and credit score analysis, gross sales and buying and selling, prime brokerage, world clearing and fee administration companies. Cowen’s funding administration section presents actively managed various funding merchandise. Cowen Inc. focuses on delivering value-added capabilities to our purchasers with a view to assist them outperform. Based in 1918, the agency is headquartered in New York and has workplaces worldwide. Be taught extra at Cowen.com.
AFS Logistics helps greater than 1,700 firms throughout greater than 35 international locations drive sustained financial savings, whereas turning their provide chains into aggressive, customer-centric differentiators. The AFS portfolio of companies options Audit, Parcel, LTL and Transportation Administration, which incorporates Freight Brokerage and Freight Forwarding. Based in 1982 and using a crew of greater than 350 logistics teammates in seven main places throughout the U.S., AFS is repeatedly a part of the Inc. 5000 checklist of quickest rising firms. To be taught extra, go to www.afs.web.
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Anna Claire Stevens